Jefferies Reduces Hawaiian Electric Price Target to $8.75 Due to Wildfire Costs

Jefferies has lowered its price target for Hawaiian Electric Industries (NYSE: HE) from $11.75 to $8.75, citing financial pressure from Maui wildfire liabilities and unresolved state regulatory frameworks. The firm maintained its Underperform rating, warning that the utility’s financing obligations will likely limit earnings growth through the end of the decade.

"The company faces a multi-year headwind as wildfire financing costs consume utility growth, leading to a projected earnings per share decline by 2029," analysts at Jefferies noted in their recent assessment.

Earnings Outlook and Financial Burden

Jefferies projects that Hawaiian Electric's earnings per share may recover to $0.95 by 2027, but they are expected to fall to $0.86 by 2029 as the company manages the long-term costs of wildfire-related settlements. These projections reflect the utility's struggle, as it currently carries a debt burden of $2.8 billion and reports negative levered free cash flow of $565 million.

This trend appeared in recent performance. In the second quarter, Hawaiian Electric reported core earnings per share of $0.13, missing consensus analyst forecasts of $0.19. Core net income for the period dropped to $22.5 million, down from $35.4 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analyst Sentiment

Ladenburg Thalmann recently initiated coverage on the utility with a Sell rating and a price target of $7.00, citing concerns regarding the company’s return on equity. These firms express skepticism regarding the utility's ability to navigate Hawaii’s wildfire liability regulations.

Market Context

For investors, the revised $8.75 target implies a total potential shareholder return of negative 14.3% from recent trading levels. Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) shares traded at $47.90 as of September 18, 2026, up 0.06% from the previous close of $47.87.