Europe Gas Climbs 3% on Tanker Threats Despite Hormuz Surge

European natural gas prices climbed as ongoing Middle Eastern tanker attacks overshadowed a September rebound in liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The upward price movement reflects heightened risk premiums in global energy markets despite a measurable recovery in regional export volumes.

The benchmark Dutch front-month natural gas contract jumped 3% to trade at 75.74 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), while the British wholesale contract climbed 3 pence to trade at 189.00 pence per therm.

Shipment Recovery in the Strait of Hormuz

The volume of LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to its highest monthly level since February. This rebound was supported by the partial resumption of regional pipelines and loading terminals following earlier operational disruptions.

However, persistent security threats to commercial vessels navigating Middle Eastern waters have kept freight insurers on high alert, neutralizing the downward pressure that increased physical supply would typically exert on European utility bills.

UBS Revises Regional Forecasts

In response to sustained geopolitical risks and tighter market conditions, financial institutions have adjusted their forward pricing models. UBS raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Dutch TTF forecast to 75.00 euros per megawatt-hour from 62.00 euros per megawatt-hour.

At the same time, the bank hiked its full-year 2027 forecast to 45.00 euros per megawatt-hour from 40.00 euros per megawatt-hour, signaling expectations of elevated energy costs persisting well into the medium term.

Storage Levels and Macroeconomic Impact

European Union underground gas storage caverns are currently 72% full, marking an improvement from 66% capacity the previous month. Despite this inventory build, overall storage levels remain below historical benchmarks, leaving the continent vulnerable to unexpected supply shocks or sudden cold snaps.

During a recent briefing on regional price pressures, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that high energy costs have yet to generate strong second-round inflation pass-through across member states.