Deckers Outdoor Receives Underperform Rating, $70 Target at BMO

BMO Capital initiated coverage on Deckers Outdoor with an underperform rating and a $70.00 price target, pointing to cooling athletic demand and potential downward revisions for its flagship HOKA brand. The target represents a 15% drop from the stock price of $82.60, which was trading near its 52-week low of $78.91.

Earnings Estimates Below Wall Street Consensus

Underpinning the underperform rating are earnings per share projections that trail general market expectations. BMO Capital set earnings per share estimates of $7.18 for fiscal year 2027 and $7.39 for fiscal year 2028, according to the investment firm's initial research coverage. These figures sit below consensus estimates of $7.52 for fiscal 2027 and $8.30 for fiscal 2028.

Analyst projections often diverge from broader consensus when firms anticipate structural margin compression or slowing top-line growth that has not yet been fully absorbed by the wider market. In this case, the valuation discount reflects growing caution toward discretionary footwear spending.

HOKA Growth Risks and Upcoming Guidance

Growth deceleration in the athletic footwear segment remains a central concern for the brokerage. BMO Capital expects management to lower HOKA brand guidance during the second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report scheduled for late October, citing a weaker demand environment across the broader athletic market.

HOKA has been a primary growth driver for Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK) in recent quarters, offsetting volatility in other legacy lines. Any sign of softening momentum for the brand carries significant weight for investors tracking the company's valuation multiples and long-term expansion targets.