US and Iran Hold Indirect Talks in New York Over Ceasefire

U.S. and Iranian officials are holding separate indirect negotiations with Qatari mediators in New York to negotiate an end to the seven-month-old conflict, focusing on a revised Iranian ceasefire proposal despite President Donald Trump publicly rejecting an earlier version.

The talks, held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, center on a seven-day proposal presented by Tehran that ties the reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz to the immediate release of frozen funds and the lifting of economic sanctions.

"We talked about ideas and how to find solutions to fulfil Iran's conditions," said Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, in a statement regarding the ongoing diplomatic engagement with Qatari intermediaries.

Details of the Revised Ceasefire Plan

Under the terms presented by the Iranian proposal, Tehran is calling for a four- to five-day timeline for Washington to release frozen funds, lift oil sanctions, and end the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The framework also stipulates that formal nuclear talks would begin within seven days, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains contingent on the full implementation of these terms.

President Donald Trump initially called the plan unacceptable and rejected it on Sunday, asserting that Tehran is seeking a swift deal due to intensifying economic pressure. However, Trump later confirmed at the White House on Monday that U.S. officials had spoken separately with mediators, adding that, "We're going to win. It's going to go pretty quickly."

Oil Flows and the Strait of Hormuz

The indirect diplomacy unfolds as shipping and energy markets navigate severe disruptions caused by the seven-month-old conflict. Middle Eastern crude exports have rebounded this month to approximately 80% of pre-conflict levels, representing their highest output since fighting began in February, according to Kpler data.

Despite the monthly recovery, total clearance through the Strait of Hormuz stood at 10,591 kilobarrels a day on Saturday, remaining well below the 17,133 kilobarrels per day recorded as the pre-war baseline.

Potential Diesel Export Ban and Domestic Prices

Simultaneously, the Trump administration is weighing an outright diesel export ban that Kpler estimates would keep roughly 1.2 million barrels a day at home. Analysts warn such a measure risks overwhelming Gulf Coast storage infrastructure, particularly as U.S. retail diesel prices hover near $6.53 a gallon.

What Is at Stake for Energy Markets

The ongoing mediation highlights the acute economic and geopolitical stakes tied to maritime transit through the Persian Gulf. With regional crude flows recovering unevenly and domestic fuel costs remaining elevated, the outcome of the indirect talks in New York could dictate both the trajectory of Middle Eastern energy exports and the enforcement of broader U.S. sanctions.