Saudi Aramco CEO Warns Global Oil Inventories Near Stress Limits

Global oil market fragility is intensifying as accessible commercial inventories have dwindled to 10% or less of total stockpiles, according to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser. The current supply situation, marked by significant drawdowns, leaves little margin for error in meeting global demand of approximately 102 million barrels per day.

"Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is already straining," said Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, in a statement regarding the current market state.

The Mechanics of Market Fragility

The stress level described by Nasser refers to the distinction between total reported inventory and the portion that is physically accessible and ready for market distribution. While total commercial inventories hover below 6 billion barrels, much of this volume is locked in operational pipelines, storage tanks required for minimum technical levels, or strategic reserves not available for immediate commercial release.

This lack of liquidity in the storage system complicates efforts to stabilize prices through supply releases. Nasser pointed to the difficulty of coordinating emergency supply injections, noting that even relatively modest releases require international negotiation.

"It took a lot of negotiations, but it is 100 million. Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available, that’s why they struggle with 100 million barrels," Nasser said, referencing the International Energy Agency’s recent release of 100 million barrels.

Inventory Drawdowns and Market Pressure

The current supply-demand imbalance has been exacerbated by a sustained period of inventory depletion. According to a report from Investing.com, over 1 billion barrels of oil have been withdrawn from onshore commercial inventories since the onset of the current Middle East crisis. This rapid depletion has left the global energy system with thin buffers against further supply shocks or sudden surges in demand.

For energy markets, these figures suggest that the capacity for storage to act as a shock absorber has been compromised. With daily demand exceeding 100 million barrels, the remaining accessible inventory represents only a fraction of what would be required to offset a major, prolonged supply disruption, heightening the sensitivity of oil prices to any new geopolitical or production-related volatility.