BofA Upgrades Dassault to Buy on Rafale Backlog Potential

BofA Securities upgraded Dassault Aviation SA (EPA:AM) to 'buy' from 'neutral' and raised its price target to €360 from €345, citing potential major Rafale fighter jet orders that could significantly extend the aerospace manufacturer's production backlog.

The analyst upgrade reflects growing visibility into the French manufacturer's multi-year output, driven by expected defense procurement demand across international markets.

"BofA upgraded Dassault Aviation SA to 'buy' from 'neutral' and raised its price target to €360 from €345," according to a Yahoo Finance report.

Production Backlog and Export Catalysts

Dassault's current Rafale backlog provides approximately 7.5 years of production visibility based on current delivery rates. However, according to the report, that horizon could exceed 15 years if proposed orders from India and Ukraine are successfully secured and finalized as firm contracts.

The potential catalysts center on major international defense acquisitions. India is evaluating a prospective order for 114 aircraft, while Ukraine is discussing potential procurement of up to 100 aircraft. Under a July 2026 agreement with France, Ukraine is expected to initially order 16 Rafale aircraft, with deliveries targeted to begin in 2028-29. Neither opportunity has yet materialized into a binding contract.

Updated Earnings Forecasts

Alongside the rating change, BofA adjusted its financial forecasts for the company across multiple fiscal periods. The firm raised its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to €16.40 from €16.30 and lifted its 2028 projection to €22.31 from €21.42. Conversely, analysts trimmed the 2027 estimate slightly to €19.36 from €19.67, reflecting anticipated delivery scheduling shifts.

What Defense Backlogs Mean for Aerospace Manufacturers

For defense contractors like Dassault Aviation, production backlog serves as a primary metric for long-term revenue predictability. Extended order visibility reduces cyclical exposure by locking in manufacturing volume over decades, though fulfillment depends heavily on supply chain stability, skilled labor availability, and timely government contract execution.