BofA Raises Long-Term Copper Forecast to $12,000 Per Ton

Bank of America strategists raised their long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton (or $5.44 per pound in 2026 dollars), driven by persistent supply constraints across major mining jurisdictions.

The upward revision highlights tightening structural balances in industrial metals, contrasting with mixed revisions for aluminum and precious metals.

"Persistent supply issues remain the main driver behind copper's price strength," strategists noted in a report from Investing.com.

Downside Risks to the Copper Thesis

While the bank's long-term outlook remains bullish, strategists outlined significant risks that could derail industrial metal valuations. Potential headwinds include a sudden energy-induced demand shock or a broader pause in data center capital expenditures, which have formed a major pillar of recent copper consumption growth.

Additionally, strategists cited ongoing volatility risks stemming from the war in the Middle East, which can disrupt global logistics and energy inputs required for metal refining.

Revisions for Aluminum and Gold

Commodity forecasts across the broader metals complex showed varying trajectories alongside the copper upgrade. Bank of America lowered its 2027 aluminum price forecast by 5% to $3,625 per ton, reflecting shifting regional supply dynamics.

In precious metals, strategists noted that higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar create a structurally bearish outlook for gold prices, dampening non-yielding bullion demand.

Mining Sector Upgrades and Valuations

Reflecting these commodity views, BofA Securities adjusted its equity coverage within the global mining sector. Analysts upgraded BHP to Buy with a price objective of A$68 and maintained a Buy rating on Antofagasta with a price objective of GBp4700.

These equity calls connect macroeconomic commodity projections directly to producer valuations, signaling where analysts see the strongest free cash flow generation amid volatile input costs.