William Blair Lowers AST SpaceMobile 2027 Revenue Forecast by 39%

William Blair has lowered its 2027 revenue forecast for AST SpaceMobile to $459 million from $752 million, citing satellite launch delays and a reduced orbital deployment schedule. This revision reflects a change in the firm's outlook for the company's constellation growth and revenue generation timeline.

Analysts now project that AST SpaceMobile will have fewer than 20 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. This is a contraction from the company's previous internal expectations, which had targeted at least 45 satellites in operation by that time.

"BlueBird 11 is fully deployed and all 13 satellites are performing well," said Abel Avellan, CEO of AST SpaceMobile, in a statement regarding the company's current operational status.

Operational Milestones and Integration

Although deployment schedules face delays, the company continues to advance its technical integration efforts. AST SpaceMobile recently completed its first successful integration test with Canadian telecommunications provider TELUS. Under the current roadmap, the company expects to make its direct-to-cell service available to TELUS customers within the next year.

Impact of Deployment Delays

For satellite operators, the pace of orbital deployment is the primary driver of potential service revenue. Each additional satellite increases the geographic coverage and network capacity, which are necessary for securing commercial contracts with mobile network operators.

By reducing the projected number of active satellites for 2026, William Blair's analysis suggests a more gradual scaling of network capacity than previously anticipated. The revision highlights the operational challenges of building a space-based cellular broadband network, where launch cadences and hardware deployment timelines dictate the speed at which a company can begin realizing recurring subscription revenue.