Stifel Maintains Hold Rating on ResMed Citing Risk of Market Share Loss

Stifel analysts have reiterated a 'Hold' rating on ResMed. They stated that current market estimates do not account for the potential impact of Philips reentering the sleep device market. Although the company holds a dominant position, analysts warn that competitive pressures could lead to share loss in the coming years.

"We believe the street is not fully accounting for the potential market share erosion that could occur if Philips reenters the market," Stifel analysts noted in a recent assessment of the stock.

Market Share Projections and Competitive Risks

ResMed currently holds a 91% share of the U.S. device market as of 2026. Stifel projects this figure will decline to 87% next year because of the impact of KPAP, a newer therapeutic approach. The risk profile shifts if Philips successfully returns to the market, as projections suggest ResMed's share could fall to 75%.

This competitive outlook differs from current analyst consensus. Stifel suggests that consensus may be optimistic regarding the company's ability to defend its status in the sleep apnea device sector. The firm has set a $235.00 price target for the stock. They noted that while the immediate operational setup remains favorable, fiscal 2028 revenue growth is likely to decelerate as these market dynamics evolve.

Recent Financial Performance

ResMed's latest quarterly results showed a mixed performance against analyst expectations. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company reported non-GAAP earnings of $2.95 per share, which outperformed the consensus forecast of $2.89. Top-line growth fell short, as reported revenue of $1.46 billion missed the anticipated $1.47 billion estimate.

What Is at Stake

For investors, the tension lies between ResMed's current profitability and the long-term sustainability of its market dominance. The medical device manufacturer has benefited from the absence of major competitors in recent years, which allowed it to maintain elevated margins. The potential reentry of a major player like Philips represents a structural shift that could force pricing adjustments and R&D spending increases. This may temper the growth trajectory that has defined the company's recent performance.