Oil Prices Rise Past $96 After US and Iran Strike Tankers

Oil prices extended gains as military strikes between the U.S. and Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensified fears of prolonged global energy supply disruptions. Brent crude futures climbed 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $92.14 a barrel, up 66 cents or 0.72%.

"By hitting the launchers rather than broader Iranian military infrastructure, the U.S. appears to be punishing a specific behaviour rather than, at least for now, broadening its war aims," said Ali Vaez, deputy program director at International Crisis Group, in a statement regarding the strikes.

The military escalation followed a series of direct vessel attacks in critical Middle Eastern waterways. U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one situated off the coast of Kharg Island near Iran's primary oil export hub, according to U.S. Central Command. Simultaneously, the navy of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted three oil tankers traveling through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz alongside three additional U.s. vessels.

Maritime Trade and Economic Pressure

The direct targeting of commercial vessels represents a sharp shift in regional hostilities. Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks.

Analytics firm Kpler reported that an average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over a recent 10-day period, marking the lowest level of maritime traffic recorded since May.

"It is enforcing the blockade," said Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, describing the administration's goal as degrading Tehran's capabilities to mine the Strait of Hormuz.

Production Quotas and Supply Outlook

Amid the ongoing maritime disruptions, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October during a meeting, noting it needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next steps. Analysts at ANZ noted that energy exports are expected to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening anticipated late in the fourth quarter of 2026. Pre-war throughput levels are not projected to return until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027.

What Is at Stake for Global Energy Markets

The military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens a primary chokepoint for international petroleum transport, raising immediate cost pressures for global refiners and consumers. With transit volumes at multi-month lows and supply recovery timelines extending into 2027, energy markets remain vulnerable to ongoing disruptions in regional shipping lanes.