Goldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate Hike Forecast to December

Goldman Sachs delayed its expected U.S. interest rate hike from October to December following softer inflation data, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee. The adjustment reflects cooling price pressures across the economy as policymakers weigh future monetary tightening.

"আমরা দ্বিতীয় দফায় সুদের হার বৃদ্ধির পূর্বাভাস পিছিয়ে ডিসেম্বরে নিয়ে যাচ্ছি এবং আমাদের মনে হচ্ছে এফওএমসি এই সিদ্ধান্তে পৌঁছাতে পারে যে অতিরিক্ত সুদের হার বৃদ্ধির আর কোনো প্রয়োজন নেই," বুধবার প্রকাশিত এক নোটে গোল্ডম্যান স্যাক্স একথা জানিয়েছে। রয়টার্সের প্রতিবেদন অনুযায়ী এই তথ্য জানা গেছে।

Inflation Data and FedWatch Market Pricing

The revision follows August inflation figures that trailed economists' projections. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 3.4% on an annual basis in August, falling below the 3.7% estimate compiled by Reuters.

Financial markets adjusted rapidly to the inflation reading and the revised Wall Street outlook. Rate futures reflect about a 38% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike in October, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. That figure is down from roughly 51% in the prior session and nearly 71% a week ago.

Economic Baseline and Effective Federal Funds Rate

The shifting rate expectations arrive against the backdrop of established monetary benchmarks. According to FRED economic data, the effective federal funds rate stood at 3.75 as of September 1, 2026, marking the baseline from which the FOMC evaluates further adjustments.

In the public equity markets, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) shares traded at $893.46, down 1.01% as of October 5, 2026, according to Finnhub market data.

What the Shift Means for Monetary Policy

The decision by a major institutional forecaster to push back its tightening timeline highlights the sensitivity of central bank projections to incoming price data. As the FOMC approaches its upcoming meetings, participants face conflicting signals between moderating consumer price indices and a resilient underlying labor market, leaving the ultimate trajectory of benchmark rates open through the final quarter of the year.