Goldman Sachs Projects AI Capital Spending to Increase European GDP by 0.1% in 2026

Global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence should provide a small boost to the European economy in 2026, helping to offset ongoing economic pressures from energy costs. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the AI investment cycle will contribute between 0.05 and 0.15 percentage points to European GDP growth, with a mean estimate of 0.10 percentage points.

This projected growth arrives as European companies with direct AI exposure have already seen earnings expectations rise by approximately €12 billion since the current cycle began. This increase represents roughly 0.05% of total European GDP, showing that the initial phase of AI implementation is beginning to manifest in regional financial performance.

Regional Beneficiaries of the AI Cycle

The economic impact of AI investment is distributed unevenly across the continent, as specific regions capture value based on their industrial specializations. Goldman Sachs identifies a split in how different economies are participating in the growth:

• Scandinavian and Iberian Economies: These regions are becoming primary beneficiaries of physical data center investment, which requires significant infrastructure development.
• Manufacturing Hubs: Countries with heavy manufacturing bases, such as Germany, are seeing gains driven by increased global demand for semiconductors and specialized electrical equipment required for AI hardware.

Economic Context and Market Performance

While the 0.10 percentage point contribution to GDP is a small boost, it serves as an offset to the headwinds Europe has faced regarding energy pricing. The analysis suggests that the transition toward AI-related industrial demand is helping to stabilize growth projections for the coming year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) shares closed at $895.32 on October 9, 2026, marking a 1.44% increase in the firm's market valuation. The bank's research underscores how the broader capital expenditure cycle in technology is shifting from speculative development toward tangible infrastructure and equipment orders across the European industrial base.