Bernstein Cuts McDonald's Price Target to $250 on U.S. Sales

Bernstein SocGen Group lowered its price target on McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) to $250 from $295 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, citing ongoing U.S. sales growth headwinds and skepticism surrounding the chain's NEXT menu initiative.

The downgrade highlights a broader wave of cautious sentiment across Wall Street regarding near-term restaurant traffic, as major financial firms reassess earnings potential for the fast-food giant.

"We see ongoing U.S. sales growth concerns and unproven upside from the NEXT menu initiative," analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note detailing the reduction.

Sales Projections and Wall Street Downgrades

Bernstein's revision is anchored in conservative forecasts for domestic same-store sales over the coming quarters. According to the Investing.com report, the firm expects U.S. same-store sales to decline by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2026, followed by a deeper contraction of 2.5% in the fourth quarter. A modest return to positive domestic growth is projected for the second quarter of 2027.

Bernstein is accompanied by several other financial institutions that have trimmed their targets for McDonald's shares in recent weeks:

• KeyBanc: Lowered its price target to $280 from $305 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
• Wells Fargo: Decreased its price target to $270 from $300 while keeping an Overweight rating.
• Guggenheim: Reduced its target to $250 from $290 with a Neutral rating.

Franchisee Pushback on Capital Expenditures

Beyond immediate same-store sales projections, the analyst adjustments reflect operational friction between corporate leadership and franchise owners. U.S. franchisees are voicing pushback over the financial outlays required for upcoming corporate initiatives.

According to Stocktwits coverage, the NEXT program introduces estimated investment costs of about $800,000 per restaurant. That expense arrives on top of scheduled standard remodels that cost at least $400,000 per location, testing the patience of operators facing sluggish foot traffic.

Executive Outlook and Competitive Pressures

The cautious analyst consensus aligns with internal warnings from executive leadership regarding the operating environment. Earlier, McDonald’s USA President Joe Erlinger acknowledged the hurdles facing the brand.

"Industry and competitive challenges" are expected to continue throughout the year, Erlinger reportedly said regarding the state of domestic operations.

These pressures place scrutiny on management's turnaround strategies, leaving investors to weigh whether upcoming operational updates can offset softening consumer demand before major franchise capital expenditure deadlines take effect.