Jefferies Keeps $85 MP Materials Target on Strong NdPr Outlook

Jefferies has reiterated its Buy rating and $85.00 price target on MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP), pointing to strong expected third-quarter production of neodymium-praseodymium and long-term earnings growth from rare-earth magnets, according to an Investing.com report.

The analyst reaffirmation arrives as the rare-earth miner ramps up domestic processing capabilities for critical minerals used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense applications. MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California, serving as a primary Western supplier of separated rare earth oxides.

Production Forecasts and Sales Timelines

For the third quarter, MP Materials projects neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production to exceed 1,000 metric tons. Although output volume at the facility is higher, sales volumes are anticipated to remain flat quarter-over-quarter.

According to the research note, the flat sales figure is driven by shipment timing considerations and the extended lead times required for metallization processes. NdPr serves as the essential raw material for high-strength permanent magnets used in advanced powertrain motors and wind generators.

Projected Growth in Magnet EBITDA

Looking beyond near-term output, Jefferies projects that MP Materials will scale its magnet operations to reach between $300 million and $400 million in magnet EBITDA. This projected expansion represents a substantial increase from the $40.68 million in EBITDA recorded over the trailing twelve-month period.

The scaling of downstream magnet production aligns with Western policy goals aimed at establishing secure, domestic supply chains independent of foreign processing monopolies. The transition from raw material extraction to finished magnet manufacturing forms the core of the company's long-term valuation thesis among Wall Street analysts.

Financial Position and Recent Earnings

The reiterated price target follows the company's second-quarter 2026 financial release. In those results, MP Materials reported revenue of $108.49 million, beating consensus analyst estimates of $95.73 million.

During the same period, the company posted an adjusted diluted loss of $0.01 per share while maintaining a strong balance sheet backed by $1.45 billion in cash and short-term investments. This liquidity buffer provides the capital necessary to fund ongoing downstream facility expansions without immediate external financing pressures.